Question : How can i search for Vanguard ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds)  on SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) Search tool EDGAR?

Answer : ETF's can be searched under the Mutual Funds search  of EDGAR.  EDGAR documentation at https://www.sec.gov/oiea/Article/edgarguide.html quotes : "You can use the Mutual Funds tool to also search for ETFs. You can search for other types of funds as you would search for public companies."

Searching for Vanguard ETF's in Edgar. There is a trick to it. Vanguard ETF's can be found as 'Series' under a master Vanguard CIK. 

As an example, searching for the famous  Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund  with it's symbol 'VGT' does not bring back any results. This is because the ETF is registered as a Series under CIK #0000052848 for 'VANGUARD WORLD FUND'. Hence, Search for this ETF with it's name rather than it's Stock symbol .

Stock Market and Inflation

Stocks have been on a roller coaster as the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell talks about upcoming monetary policies.  Historically, developed nations have been facing less of an inflation than developing countries. I often get asked, why this may be the case. In simple terms, inflation is linked with production; production is linked with automation. Commodity prices stay in check as long as there is enough production chasing the supply of money floating in the economy. As soon as the productivity per dollar goes down, the same dollar now has reduced buying power. 

Red Ink in Financial Markets!

February 26 2021. What generated the red ink in Financial Markets?

Key indices including NASDAQ (down 478 points), S&P (down 96 points) and DOW Jones (down 560 points) had their roughest day in last couple of months. Lets take a look at what happened. 

Two Year treasury yields rose by 5 basis points and three year yield was up by 10 basis points this morning sending markets tumbling down! The daily treasury yield are published  here.

Fear of Fed tightening monetary policy and increasing rates raised concerns around slowing economic growth.  US Government seems to be getting more and more confidant about vaccination and herd immunity to put the pandemic behind, triggering the rise in treasury yields.  

 Where are the Bull and Bears Headed! 

Lets take a look. The stock indexes are a barometer of the economy. How sweet a drink is can be measured by the amount of it's sugar content. What would you measure to gauge the feel of  the market indices. 

Lets look at some of the published metrics tracked to gain insight into what drives health of the market. Interesting enough, the metrics we review here apply globally and not just to 'A Specific Country'. 

Metric #1 GDP or the Gross Domestic Product. The GDP number identified the monetary value of total amount of 'Finished Goods' and 'Services' produced by the total population of a country. 

Total GDP of the United States in 2020 was $20.93 Trillion.

The total amount of GDP for 2020 from Government sources is available here. Forecast for GDP growth is available here.

Metric #2 Total Amount of Money Supply in circulation in a Country.

Total amount of money supply in the United States in Jan 2021 was $5.2479 Trillion.

Data for the total amount of money supply in easy to understand format is available here. Data for total amount of money supply in the US from the Government is here.

General Rules of Humanity 

1. You can't consume Money.

2. You can consume what what is produced as finished goods and services.

As long as #2 > #1, there should be enough usable inventory of goods to be consumed by the overall population.  This translates into enough toilet paper to be purchased, enough food available and likely enough housing to keep a roof with the amount of money available. This makes everyone happy and healthy and the stock market moves upwards. 

Now take a situation where #1 <#2. More money and less goods. Not everyone can buy toilet paper or food or some other essentials. This makes for a grumpy population. People are not happy and this is reflected with Stock Market going down.

In a nutshell, if GDP projections are upwards compared to amount of money supply, stock market will grow. If a war, famine or calamity strikes, the GDP projections go down, Government tries to pump more money with Social Security programs and the stock market goes down.

Questions; Send them over to aspirincount@gmail.com or paste them in the comments section below. 

Ideas To Diversify in Retirement

I am an avid participant in our neighborhood app 'NextDoor' and came across this question from a neighbor.

"My Investments are mostly in ETF's like Vanguard VOO (Vanguard S&P 500), VGT (Vanguard Technology ETF), VCR (Vanguard Consumer Discretionary). Also have some real estate investments. Looking to get more ideas to diversify".

 

An interesting question and an ideal candidate for a blog post. Anyone looking for diversification beyond standard ETF's, there are good opportunities to understand and dig into subjects below.

(1) Tax Loss Harvesting : Wealthfront Roboadvisor is a good starting point.

(2) Bitcoins : Easiest way to buy cryptocurrency today seems to be  through Robinhood

Use the link Guaranteed Free Stock from Robinhood to sign up for a free stock to start with. Referrals from the link have been known to get a free VISA and Sprint stocks.

(3) Precious Metals : Gold (IAU, GLD), Platinum (PPLT) ETF's 

(4) Renewable Energy : "TAN" is a good ETF for Solar Energy and branching into socially responsible investing. 

(5) Derivative trading : Stay away if this term is new to you and if all delving into it, start with a straddle. Details on derivatives is a topic for another blog post. 

 Bitcoin!

AspirinCount Rating, Feb 2nd 2020 : Watch for troughs  for long term Buy

It's the Buzzword for the next generation of monetary exchange. With plenty of technical jargon available on the web, defining Bitcoin and it's variants, what determines the price of Bitcoin. Lets look at a couple of interesting factors that come into Bitcoin Valuation.

First and Foremost : Demand and Supply

The supply for Bitcoins and other digital currencies is limited. Unlike Paper Currency, there can be a maximum of 21 Million Bitcoins that can ever be mined. Another Digital Currency, Litecoin, is capped at 84 Million. 

What creates the demand for these digital currencies? 

It has been tough to find real use of Digital Currencies so far but looking at both sides of the coin, the favorable factors outweigh the negatives. 

-- Limited Supply of Digital Currencies limits it's usage as world currency reserve replacing Gold.  However, allowing more than one kind of digital currency can solve this problem, at the same time creating a standard for international currency acceptable to all & at par. With nearly 2500 Cryptocurrencies  in play today and rising, limited supply may not be a huge problem. 

-- Settlement of transactions can become very slow when volume of transactions is high. 

Second but nonetheless important : Regulation and Trust

As of 2017, FTC has already approved cryptocurrency trading platform LedgerX as the first federally regulated digital currency options exchange and clearinghouse in the U.S; this points to a positive future of cryptocurrencies in the United States. 

Interestingly, within US, Commodities futures trading commission classifies Bitcoins as commodities while IRS treats them as property. 

With Government regulation and Community trust kicking in, cryptocurrency seems to be on a trajectory of gaining ground. 

Corroboration by influential names, including Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jamie Dimon stakes it  firmer in the ground. 

GME; Gamestop has been the talk of the town since January 25 2020.  There has been a frenzy of activities around the stock. 

The stock was trading at $20.20 on April 1 2020. On January 14 2021 it took a different turn with an uptick in price. It became cynical on Jan 27 with nearly 400% price appreciation. 

The news in Jan 2021 has it all written on the wall. Institutional investors believed Gamestop as a Corporation may be doomed. Motivated by taking profits, these investors shorted OR borrowed and sold Gamestop shares in the open markets. However, not everyone in financial markets was aligned with this idea. This started a buying ritual that snowballed into Gamestop stock and skyrockted it many hundred times over!

Penning this article today, Feb 1st 2021, the madness around this stock is still not over. Where is it headed? The most rational explanation can be found in the term Short Interest Ratio.  Short Interest Ratio is the number of Company's Shares that have been sold short divided by average daily volume of shares traded. Anyone institution or investor, who bet against Gamestop and borrowed to sell shares in open market a.k.a. short selling, would be required to cover his position prior to the next settlement. With the price of Gamestop skyrocketing, these naysayers were forced to buy shares at sky-high prices to pay for the loan and take steep losses. 

The gravity of the situation takes a turn to the worse when one realizes that the number of shares of Gamestop that were short soled is more than the total number of Gamestop shares that exist in the market. Whoaaa!!

It will be tough for pandits and SEC to not classify this as manipulation; but that will have to be seen.

The next question arises is, Who are the naysayers or short sellers? The most prominent name that has been coming up is that of  'Melvin Capital'. Melvin capital started the year with $12.5 Billion, ending the month with about $8 Billion after accounting for the losses. 

Other Institutional investors involved in the frenzy included 'D1 Capital Partners', 'Maplelane Capital', 'Candlestick Capital Management' and 'Citron Capital'.  

Information about 'Short Interest Ratios', outlining short positions in stocks is published by the stock exchange in which the company is listed. For Gamestop, the latest short interest positions can be purchased from NYSE at NYSE Short Interest Positions.

The not so current information for Gamestop' Short Interest Ratio  is also available at MarketWatch.

Politics and Finance

"Put the politicians on minimum wage and watch how fast things change." - Anonymous

Talking about impact of politics on Financial markets, presidential executive orders in the US Economy probably makes it to the top of the list of influential factors. 

Federal Register maintains a running list of presidential orders over time and is accessible for public consumption at Federal Register.

Co-relating the political agenda to financial markets is an important toolkit for savvy investors! 

Chasing the Highest Yield CD

 

For all the Fixed Income Patrons, as me, we find safe Havens in our favorite Instrument - The Certificate of Deposit of famously CD.

Texas Credit Unions seem to be pioneering the CD rates across all CU's in the country at this time of Super Low Interest Environment. Nothing Fancy, as the highest rate stand at a meagre 2.10% at  Complex Federal Credit Union. Membership is restricted, like in any other CU. 

Researching Finance

  Researching Finance

“Rule No. 1 : Never lose money. Rule No. 2 : Never forget Rule No. 1.”
― Warren Buffett

Sometimes it's intriguing that you have to hunt for investment advise.  With so much talk about finance, and so much sensitivity around it, should it not be germane to have good investment opportunities on fingertips for those who can invest. 

Amen! It actually is. Lets go onto see how...

If you are one of those investors who likes to stay ahead of the curve, read on. A good investment idea, once morphed into success, often makes it to a listing in one of the Trading exchanges, under the close watch of Securities and Exchange Commission or what we know as The SEC.  A savvy investor would like to know about it at the stroke of first ray of dawn, right when the first tinkerbell rings and the very first form to register the company is received by the commission. 

This post outlines how to research the latest and the greatest securities that apply to register with the SEC, right at the moment of their first interaction.

Staring out, SEC provides a very friendly tool, EDGAR, to search for the various forms that have been submitted by corporations. The tool is available for access at EDGAR. 

Towards the bottom of the search tool is the gem of all gems; the section 'Search For'.  Look for 'Daily Filings by Type' [Direct link : Daily Filings By Type].  Scroll to the bottom of the this page to locate a search box for entering the 'Form Id'. The two interesting forms to keep in mind are 'S-1' and 'N-1A'.

Form S-1 is an SEC registration required for U.S. companies that want to be listed on a national exchange. It is a registration statement for a company that is usually filed in connection with an IPO (initial public offering).

SEC Form N-1A is a regulatory document required to form an open-ended fund, like an Exchange Traded Fund or a Mutual Fund. In the U.S. Funds may only offer shares to the public once approval has been received.

Look for more posts in coming days, weeks and months on Search capabilities of EDGAR along with analysis and recommendations on upcoming IPO's and ETF's. 

"Consider Stock Slices like rows of car in a CarMax. When the gas prices go up, the hybrids keep making (saving) you money; when they go down, the guzzlers have their turn" - Anonymous.

Today's blog post talks about a combination of ETF's with high yield securities and bonds. There are two recommended ETF's that form the slice for today's recommendation; 'Fidelity High Yield Dividend ETF (FDVV)' & 'iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)'. 

FDVV is an ETF comprising of 107 Equities, with 'APPL', 'MSFT' and 'PG' being the top 3 holdings. The ETF yields a 3.10% at today's closing price of $33.08. Being an equity ETF, it certainly has room to grow. Dividend paid quarterly. 

Rating : Hold

HYG is an ETF comprising of '1226' bond securities with 'BlackRock Cash Funds Treasury SL Agency', 'ALTICE FRANCE', 'T-Mobile US, Inc.' being the top 3 holdings. The ETF yields a whopping 4.88% as of today's closing price of $87.36.  Dividend paid Monthly. 

Rating : Hold

Great for retirees or those looking for a monthly income stream to retire early!!

 Global X Education ETF (EDUT)

An Investment in Knowledge pays the best interest. 

Today's ETF is about Education. The ETF debuted on July 1st  2020 on the heals of surge in online Education.  With Schools no where near close to opening full time in near future, this play to bring in good appreciation. 

For those inquisitive about the underlying holdings, the link below has the details. 

Underlying Holdings for EDUT

VictoryShares Protect America ETF (SHLD)

 

Today's Pick VictoryShares Protect America ETF (SHLD)

The index identifies the top 50 eligible companies ranked by total outstanding contracts relating to the protection of U.S. national security interests, and projected revenue amounts.

The Department of Defense Budget for 2020 stands at 721.5 Billion. Defense being a substantial portion of US GDP, it's tough to go wrong with Victory Shares today. 

Add your thoughts and numbers to the discussion and let others chime in. 

Todays Pick : [FXB] - Currency Shares British Pound Sterling ETF

The 'BREXIT Fears' have become true and Prime Minister May is moving ahead. She is expecting to trigger Article 50 in March 2017 which will be the trigger to have Britain roll of the European Union Ship by March 2019. Expect a roller coaster in March of next year, but with the currency at 31 year low today, it is a good buy today in an otherwise un-exciting bull market, of Course, only if you have dough to spare and invest. 

Today's Pick : Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)

Wells Fargo has been hit pretty hard with the recent scandal related to Opening of New Accounts. Whether they were following a Industry Wide practise or not, time will tell. The stock, though, has certainly been impacted big time and is trading at it's 2 year low, at $45 a share.

Given the history of Wells Fargo and a strong backing from none other than Mr. Warren Buffet which has a huge stake in the bank, this should certainly turn out to be an underdog in years to come. The price targets and market consensus are all pointing higher to about $53+ a share.

This would certainly be a good 'Buy' in a market where there are very little buying opportunities.

Don't hold your breath, Go For It!

Retirement's 4% Conundrum

At some point or the other we have all read about the 4% rule comes to haunt all of us. Often quoted by Financial advisers, this is the percentage that your adviser suggests to begin withdrawing from your nest egg as soon as you enter your golden years and sayonara you 'nine' to 'five' gig. 

Personally, i have never favored a 'One Size Fits All' Strategy and have had second thoughts on the rationalization of this off quoted rule. It seems reasonable, however lets get more granular.

With interest rates as low as they are today, there is a very simple rule that can give you a number on your monthly income from your lifelong earning, which is as follows :

Rule of Thumb for Monthly Retirement Income

Interest Rate	Amount Saved	Monthly Income
1.2%	$100,000	$100
1.2%	$200,000	$200
2.4%	$100,000	$200

Feel free to do the Maths to arrive at the numbers above. Extrapolating the table, with an interest rate of  3.6%, expect to make a monthly income of of '$300' for every '$100,000' saved. With 4%, a little bit more!

The figure now to keep in mind is the 'Interest rate' or the 'Rate of Return'. If you want your Savings to live past your retirement, benefit your kids and grandkids, keep an eye on how hard you can make your money work for you.

If you can only make it work as hard as to return 1.2% (looks like a CD account?) you can withdrawn $100 for every $100,000 saved without shaving off any dough from your nest egg. If   you are a better manager, may be you can make it work to return you 3.6% a year. Well, you can now triple your income without touching your boodle.

Today's Pick : USO, OIL

Oil is on the tear again today and Energy Prices going down. Even with alternative sources of energy being explored actively, the world has enough oil reserves for 53.3 years. USA today reported these numbers back in 2014 (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/06/28/the-world-was-533-years-of-oil-left/11528999/).

Oil reserves are  ticking time bomb but world's dependency on Oil is expected to continue. Forbes, in an article about a year ago outlined '3 Main' reasons why Oil will continue to be the Market Leader for Energy in years to come (http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2015/04/19/three-reasons-oil-will-continue-to-run-the-world/2/#1873b86f71cb).

The alternative sources of energy are in fledgling state. If you are a non-believer in OIL, may be this is not for you, but for someone wanting to ride this low yield market for next 8 years, you probably will not see OIL trade at such a low price.

The picks today are USO and OIL both of which track Prices of Crude Oil. They haven't been trading at such a low price for over a decade and hence it is the pick of the day.

If you have a regular brokerage account, you may run into challenges in trading USO and OIL e.g. Merill Lynch would not allow you to buy USO marking it as a toxic security (Nonertheless, they would not explain what qualifies a security as toxic).

One of the best place to trade USO for free is the Mobile App 'Robinhood'. The app offers free unlimited trades on Apple and Android Mobile devices.

Happy reading and jolly money-making with those who believe in OIL!!

Todays Pick : Tax Exempt Municipal Bond Funds : Nuveen Funds : NKG, NEA, NMZ and more...

I am moving away from Stock Picks today and focus on some reprieve from Uncle Sam with my investment. He already takes a big byte out of my paycheck (which is no where near BIG) - I hate to give him anything more!

Nuveen Funds are amongst the most often invested funds and yield good returns that are either not taxed or taxed partially..

I will tell the readers a little secret about myself today. I live in the state of 'Georgia' and i have been invested a little in Nuveen Georgia Municipal Bond Fund for over 6 years and hence have tasted the secret sauce behind this tax or partially taxed investment. 'NKG' is the ticker that has been returning me nearly 5% tax-free income for all these years - good deal, ain't it?

I felt more comfortable about my 'NKG' investment when i read sometime back that our House Speak Paul Ryan is heavlily invested in 'Nuveen Funds' as well. I did not care which funds he was invested in, the mention of  Name was good enough for me to get into the Game..

A list of tax-exempt funds from Nuveen, sorted by State, is available for reference at http://www.nuveen.com/CEF/DailyPricingTaxExempt.aspx. Feel free to pick and choose the fund for your state and fly by uncle Sam's toll booth with a free ride.

The link again for the list of funds is : http://www.nuveen.com/CEF/DailyPricingTaxExempt.aspx

This is by the the best way that i have come across to generate tax-free pre-retirement income. Please comment if you find any others...

Happy Savings!!!

Today's Pick : IFLY (FactorShares Trust PureFunds Drone Economy Strategy ETF)

Yesterday, Aug. 29 2016,  was a big day for the drone industry. FAA gave approvals for the drone industry to start flying. It also became flexible with licensing requirements for Drone Operators - you no longer need a pilot's license to operate drone. Fantastic - Ain't it.

Us investors, this presents an opportunity. The drone ETF should be a wise investment. This is where 'IFLY' ETF steps in. The ETF has not been on the tear yet and could be on the CUSP of making it to the list of 'Favorites'. I haven't seen a lot of naysayers (any for that matter until now) to the drone industry. Amazon, Walmart are vying for their share in the drone industry.  The ETF is only about 6 months old (as far as i can see), but is on the rise and has made it to my personal investment portfolio. If you have Cash flying around and are thinking of investing in DOW, S&P or NASDAQ, take a look at IFLY again - you might be able to beat the market with a little bit of research over the news.

The ETF currently covers '41' drone companies and is a safe bet to invest in, safer then investing in individual companies like GoPro or struggle with investing in companies that aren't even public yet. Try the ETF, i am quite sure you would not be disappointed.  

Today's Pick : ANH [Anworth Mortgage]

Bulls have no leash again today and a pricey stock market continues to get pricier. I hear more and more investors are strapped with Cash and looking for areas to see the double digit growth that historically came with Index Funds.

Not Surprise. I am still working around this market since it doesn't want to work with me.

Hunting for Cheap stocks, that do not manifest volatility and yield a decent return, one usually lands up in an REIT (Real Estate Investment Trusts).  I got ANH by word of mouth when buying our little Home Sweet Home. This was years ago and the REIT has stood the test of time. With an yield of 12% today, the stock doubles you put in in about 6 years.

[Let me share a hidden rule to quickly calculate how long it takes to double your money. Divide 72 by the yield and you should roughly get the number of years it will take to double your money. WIth ~12% yield on ANH, you are set to recoup all of your investment in 6 years and start reaping a new harvest with the 7th].

In days to come, i will begin posting a graph for return on my recommendation on 'Bo Derek'.

For those who are just landing at this place, 'Bo Derek' is the adjacent text page that has additional analysis on my recommendations.